Panic Buying, Rumor Spreading, and Assigning Blame: Analyzing Human Behavior During a Pandemic

COVID-19 has dominated the news cycle. It has caused a great deal of uncertainty and disruption to people’s lives. And it has done so on a global scale.  Over the past couple of months as lay-offs, quarantines and self-isolations became more commonplace you may have found yourself shaking your head at statements made by co-workers, relatives, friends, and the occasional politician.  You may have even found yourself shaking your head at your “past self” for not taking the potential reach of COVID-19 seriously. Human behavior in a pandemic seems erratic and dangerous.

When sharing our experiences with each other we at Optimistic Learner found ourselves concluding that many of the distressing behaviors people displayed were not unfamiliar. They were either heightened (such as an increase in group bias) or the consequences of the actions were heightened (such as social media incentivizing engagement over truth).

Here we will be examining human behaviors and biases in the context of the pandemic. And how we can be better to ourselves and others.

Panic Buying

Panic Buying¹ is the buying of large quantities of a commodity which, it is feared, may be in short supply. Notice that this definition is not synonymous with individuals hoarding goods. If I go and buy toilet paper only because I see on the news people are buying large quantities of toilet paper. I’m buying the product because I’m scared there will be none when I need some. I have participated in panic buying. Even if I don’t buy an excessive amount myself I’ve lessened the amount of toilet paper on the shelf out of fear.

One trait which fuels panic buying was brought up briefly in an article we shared years ago about awe. This is the tendency people have to fear an unknown outcome even more than a negative known outcome.

A well known study of this involved participants² playing a computer game. In the game they would overturn rocks which may or may not have a snake under them. If there was a snake they were given a painful shock. Participants exhibited more stress when faced with overturning rocks where they did not know what awaited them, than rocks where they knew that there would be a snake.

Not knowing what the future holds leads to us wanting to have some sense of control. If I’m not sure that there will be toilet paper on the shelves I will make sure there is toilet paper on my shelf.

It is not necessarily that I’m afraid because there will be a shortage in the future but there could be a shortage in the future. As uncertainty fuels anxiety³ I can regain control of outcomes with my purchase. 

False Information

False information during a pandemic can be deadly. And is also fueled by uncertainty. While the main information as to what works best (quarantine for those with symptoms, social distancing, frequent hand washing, and minimal face touching for everyone) has remained consistent there is enough uncertainty to raise anxiety and incite wild speculation.

On March 21st it was reported by the BBC that more people had died in Iran’s Fars province from alcohol poisoning while trying to protect themselves from the coronavirus than from the disease. This was the result of a “persistent rumor” claiming that drinking alcohol helps to protect individuals from contracting the virus.⁴

In the United States politicians minimized the dangers with statements that the virus would “die off in Spring ” due to rising temperatures⁵, the fact is that scientists did not and still do not know how temperature changes will influence the behavior of the coronavirus⁶. Mexico had politicians showing off the scapulars* that they wear to ward off the virus.⁷

We have covered over the course of multiple articles the dangers of social media’s prioritization of engagement. The consequences of this can be seen in the sharing of false information during a pandemic. This false information has included home remedies, and speculation that gargling with bleach and hand or hair dryers kill the virus.

Gordon Pennycook’s research delves deep into the “whys” of belief. It includes an oft-cited study on “the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit”.⁸

He was recently interviewed by the BBC as to why smart people believe coronavirus myths⁹. His focus was on the sharing of information. Participants in a preliminary study were asked to judge the accuracy of headlines about the virus, the participants said the fake news was true about 25% of time. When asked whether they would share the headline around 35% said they would pass on the fake news – 10% more.

“It suggests people were sharing material that they could have known was false, if they had thought about it more directly.”

~Gordon Pennycook

Because social media prioritizes engagement over truth, people may tend to do the same.  The BBC article points out a common justification for the sharing of potentially false information, “perhaps they thought they could shift responsibility onto others to judge: many people have been sharing false information with a sort of disclaimer at the top, saying something like “I don’t know if this is true, but…”. They may think that if there’s any truth to the information, it could be helpful to friends and followers, and if it isn’t true, it’s harmless – so the impetus is to share it, not realizing that sharing causes harm too.”

Ingroup Bias

One of the more offensive human behaviours which has arisen during the pandemic has been the most extreme form of ingroup vs. outgroup, racism.

While the Chinese government has received justified criticism for its initial handling of the virus and the silencing of doctors. The insistence of referencing where the virus initiated and placing blame has led to Asian people in Western Countries experiencing prejudice.¹⁰ That this is unfortunate and unnecessary doesn’t require much explanation as the virus does not discriminate.

What can be done?

With regards to Panic Buying it’s good practice for stores to institute quotas. It should also be clearly communicated when there are plenty of resources to go around. These are essential steps to quell panic buying.

As to the sharing of false information online Pennycook suggests that social media networks could nudge their users to be more discerning with relatively straightforward interventions. In his experiments, he found that asking participants to rate the factual accuracy of a single claim primed participants to start thinking more critically about other statements, so that they were more than twice as discerning about the information they shared.

An awareness of the ingroup vs. outgroup dynamic is important but with regards to assigning blame the advice is simple: don’t be racist.

It can seem a human behavior pandemic runs parallel to the viral one. But if we understand it in the context of an extreme situation we can better plan for the behavioral aspects of the next pandemic as well.

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Sources

1. Panic Buying – Collins Dictionary
2. Computations of uncertainty mediate acute stress responses in humans by Nature
3. How Uncertainty Fuels Anxiety by The Atlantic
4. Deaths from alcohol poisoning by BBC
5. Coronavirus Will Subside In Spring? Doctors aren’t so sure. by Huffington Post
6. Coronavirus myths explored by Medical News Today
7. With scapular, AMLO claims to face the coronavirus
8. On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit by Gordon Pennycook
9. Why smart people believe coronavirus myths by BBC
10. Racist attacks during coronavirus pandemic
11. Featured image by Evgeni Tcherkasski on Unsplash

*A Western Christian garment suspended from the shoulders that serves to remind the wearers of their commitment to live a Christian life.